Is Print Dead?

There is an unsettling myth being perpetuated about the death of print books. The news of print’s demise is simply not true. It sounds a bit like Mark Twain having to write a note to a reporter saying “The report of my death was an exaggeration.”

To fully explain I need to start with the music industry.
The impression is that all sales are now digital. And iTunes has killed the physical CD. This is not true.

Approximately 12 songs fit on a CD. And since individual songs can be downloaded, the only way to compare physical CD sales with download sales is to divide the number of songs downloaded by 12. That way you have a one-to-one comparison.

With that assumption in place, Apple is the #1 retailer of CDs in America. No surprise. The surprise is that they only comprise 25% of sales. Walmart is #2 at 14% and Best Buy is #3 (my guess is that Amazon.com is #4 but wasn’t mentioned in the article).

Why is that surprising? Because that means 75% of all sales are still “hard copy.” Physical CDs. It is significant that Apple’s share has increased as a percentage of all sales from 21% in 2008, up from 14% in 2007. But it still means the physical product is outselling the digital by 3 to 1. (In total dollars, across all forms of music, digital downloads comprise only 35% of all music sales.)

Turn that same conversation to the book industry. The Amazon Kindle has impact primarily because they were first and did create a pretty cool device (I bought one the week it came out in Fall 2007 and upgraded in 2008). The Barnes & Noble Nook is shipping with reports of modest success. The Sony Reader has its followers. Plastic Logic just announced their cool tablet sized reader. And everyone is wondering what Apple will announce in the near(?) future regarding their answer to the “hardware” question.  But despite this we really don’t have an “iPod” equivalent. Mike Hyatt, CEO of Thomas Nelson Publishers, wrote in 2005 that we are “one device away from a digital revolution.” In my opinion we are still waiting for that device. The iPhone is not the answer for most people. The screen is simply too small. And for someone like myself who reads rather fast it can be very annoying…

Don’t get me wrong. My head isn’t buried in the sand. That revolution is coming and some would say it is already here. But the “tipping point” has yet to occur.

Amazon had a lot of fun announcing that they sold more digital books than physical books on Christmas Day 2009. Think about it. On Christmas Day recipients of the Kindle opened their gift and downloaded stuff while playing with their new toy. But who else would be shopping on Christmas Day? No one. So while it made a fun press release it really isn’t as astounding as it first sounded.

I see the royalty statements. I know exactly how many digital versions of my client’s books are being sold. And while there are a lot more sold than there were two years ago (of course there would be) the volume is still less than 1% of the print version sold. LESS THAN ONE PERCENT.

So let’s do some math. Let’s say that e-books have 100% growth in the next year. That would mean they would comprise 2% of all sales. Then let’s say it grows by 100% again, to 4%. We have to keep doubling the number for 4 years before we get to a little less than 20% of all print sales. But that still means that 80% of all sales are still hard copy. Eighty percent.

Certainly this revolution could happen and is quite likely. The implications are huge, especially for the newspaper and magazine community. But it does not mean that print books are dead.

It is even possible that in one generation (twenty years) that the conversion will take place..at least in some form or fashion. If the e-book reader cost drops to under $100. If the device is in every home, on each family member’s nightstand. If the younger generation’s textbooks are placed into e-book format and that generation becomes used to it. A lot of “ifs.”

It is a very exciting time to be in the publishing industry. I almost get giddy when thinking about the possibilities.

If you want to read someone who will challenge every assumption you’ve ever made about “curling up” with your favorite book, get a copy of Print is Dead by Jeff Gomez. Get a group of friends together to talk about his conclusions, I guarantee a rousing discussion. If you want to learn how the music industry was ambushed by technology read Appetite for Self-Destruction: The Spectacular Crash of the Record Industry in the Digital Age by Steve Knopper.

All I’m trying to say is that we need to stop buying into the myth that books are dead. It simply is not true. We are being influenced by the flood of media attention on the “new” and the “cool” and not looking past the sound bite. It is like relatives or friends writing to say “I saw that there was a flood in Phoenix…are you okay?” Yes. It flooded…in an area with a river wash and someone tried to drive thru it and got stuck. That picture hit the national news. The media gave the impression that the entire city was under water with their breathless coverage. So when you read that publishers are going under, and print books are dinosaurs, and all authors need to rethink everything…take a deep breath. It  is different. It is a time of careful consideration. No publisher wants a repeat of what happened to the record industry. But it is not as bad as you think.

In the end I implore you not to be one who helps perpetuate the myths and misinformation.

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Incoming Proposals

To your left is an actual picture of the pile of proposals our office has received since December 1, 2009. About 30 days worth of incoming mail…during a slow time of the year. The stack of books next to the pile include books sent for review (consideration) and recent publications that I want to look at.

That does not include the myriad of email submissions we get (many simply ignoring our guidelines regarding email submissions)…inquiries from those who use the contact form on our web site (many of those ignoring the request to “Please do not copy and paste your entire manuscript into this form.“)

Or the poor soul that failed to proofread their email before sending this sentence, “I would like to send you my quarry letter….”

Nor does it include those that do an Internet search and call us. Recently we got a call that went something  like this:
Agency: This is the Steve Laube Agency…
Caller: What kind of agency are you?
Agency: We are a literary agency.
Caller: What does that mean?
Agency: It means we represent books to publishers on behalf of our clients and manage our client’s careers.
Caller: Oh good. I do comic strips…and they are really unique…  [caller's voice gets faster and louder as they talk]
Agency: Well, we don’t represent artists or comic strip artists.
Caller: But I’m a philosopher too! ….. [further explanation followed]
Agency: Well, we [caller interrupts]
Caller: And I’m also a musician with over 500 songs to my credit.
Agency: Unfortunately we do not represent musicians at this time.
Caller: But I was named Rock musician of the year…
Agency: We’re sorry but it does not appear that our agency would be a good fit for you.
Caller: You want to listen to my stuff for free on Myspace?
Agency: I don’t see how that would be a good use of our time.
Caller: Someday someone will discover it and make millions.
Agency: We wish you the best in all your endeavors…

The day before, the office received a call from an aspiring author who was a psychic who had an “amazing” personal story to tell…oh, and by the way, they also have two novels done and five children’s books ready and waiting.

Meanwhile I look at my to-do list compiled last weekend in preparation for hitting the ground running on Monday January 4th:

• We are waiting for final contract paperwork on four new book deals.
• We have three authors whose proposals will get thumbs up or thumbs down at a pub board in the next week or two.
• We are waiting for proposals from fifteen clients (all in development over the last couple months).
• We need to have “career counsel” conversations with at least ten other clients. (All very different in scope and intensity.)
• We need to make the “do we represent?” decision on five successful and published authors who have approached us and the same decision on at least a half dozen excellent unpublished authors whose full manuscripts have been reviewed and now sit on the floor near my desk…staring at me (they are not in the picture above).

And that was just the to-do list and does not include the review of cover designs and marketing plans for forthcoming titles. Nor does it include the contracted clients who are wrangling with their editors over any number of issues (everything from copy edit/grammar questions to editors not returning a phone call). Don’t get me wrong! I’m not complaining. In fact this is quite an exciting time. But this post is for those who wonder why agents take so long to make representation decisions. I’ve written about rejection before and no agent takes the process lightly. But a little understanding and self education would make every writer’s experience while approaching an agent a little more tolerable.

I fully expect that at least 90% of that stack pictured above isn’t ready yet. It doesn’t mean it isn’t good. Only that it isn’t ready. The competition is fierce and a little extra effort to learn the industry (read Rachelle Gardner’s and Chip MacGregor’s blogs), learn the craft by going to a good writers conference in 2010, and realize this is a marathon, not a sprint.

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A Year in Review

This is one of my favorite times of the year. The Christmas glow is still present and since the publishing world is, in essence, on vacation, it is a perfect time to to reflect on the past twelve months.

This was a hard year for many as the economy touched everyone in some way. And yet, despite the ominous cloud of doom and gloom, there were many exciting things to celebrate.

On a personal level our middle daughter was married at the end of June. What a joy to see God at the center of the ceremony. And our oldest daughter had a blast playing keyboards for Alice Cooper (singing “School’s Out”) in front of 50,000 people at the ASU graduation ceremony in May.

On a professional level we had some authors receive wonderful recognition:

• Susan May Warren won the RITA award for best inspirational fiction.
• Margaret Daley won the Holt Medallion award for best short inspirational novel.
• Both Tracey Bateman and Marlo Schalesky won the Christy Award for best Christian fiction in their respective categories.
• John Olson, Pamela Tracy, and Sharon Hinck won four ACFW Book of the Year awards (Sharon won for two different titles).
• I was honored as the Agent of the Year at the ACFW banquet in September.
• Cindy Woodsmall was featured on the front page of the Wall Street Journal and hit #24 on the NY Times bestseller list. She was also featured in segment on Nightline.
• Ellie Kay was featured in two separate segments on ABC’s “Nightline”.

But even more exciting is to see a finished book in print. There is such a long time from idea to contract to writing to publication that we can forget the “birth” itself! Therefore I would like present a list of books published in 2009 by authors represented by The Steve Laube Agency. It is really great to see this list all in one place and to think of the hundreds of thousands of readers who have been inspired by these words. It is truly a privilege to work for such incredible writers.

The books are grouped by fiction, children’s/YA, and non-fiction. They are listed in approximate order of their release starting with January. (Note that in some cases we represented only one of the co-authors or collaborators.)

FICTION

The Someday List – Stacy Hawkins Adams (Revell)

Daddy for Keeps – Pamela Tracy (Steeple Hill)

According to Their Deeds – Paul Robertson (Bethany House Publishers)

City of the Dead – T.L. Higley (B&H Publishing Group)

Play it Again, SAHM – Meredith Efken (Steeple Hill Cafe)

Insight – Deborah Raney (Steeple Hill)

If Tomorrow Never Comes – Marlo Schalesky (Multnomah)

Road to Nowhere (paperback release) – Paul Robertson (Bethany House Publishers)

Everybody’s Suspect in Georgia – Cecil Murphey (Barbour Publishing)

Yesterday’s Embers – Deborah Raney (Howard Books)

Nothing But Trouble – Susan May Warren (Tyndale)

Miss Match – Sara Mills (Moody Publishing)

Enduring Love – Bonnie Leon (Revell)

Certain Jeopardy – Jeff Struecker with Alton Gansky (B&H Publishing Group)

Breathe – Lisa Bergren (David C. Cook)

Above All Things – Deborah Raney (Steeple Hill)

You Make Me Feel Like Dancing – Allison Bottke (David C. Cook)

Worth a Thousand Words – Stacy Hawkins Adams (Zondervan)

Return Policy – Michael Snyder (Zondervan)

The Enclave – Karen Hancock (Bethany House Publishers)

The Great Christmas Bowl – Susan May Warren (Tyndale)

The Hope of Refuge – Cindy Woodsmall (Waterbrook)

Meltdown – Chuck Holton (Multnomah)

Sweet Waters – Julie Carobini (B&H Publishing Group)

Fugitive Family – Pamela Tracy (Steeple Hill)

The Sound of Sleigh Bells - Cindy Woodsmall (Waterbrook)

Bride Backfire – Kelly Hake (Barbour Publishing)

Thirsty – Tracey Bateman (Waterbrook)

Blessed (paperback release) – Lisa Bergren (Berkley)

Guardian of the Flame – T.L. Higley (B&H Publishing Group)

Christmas Lamp – Lori Copeland (Zondervan)

Powers – John B. Olson (B&H Publishing Group)

Christmas Peril: Merry MayhemYule Die – Margaret Daley & Debbie Gusti (Steeple Hill)

Clandestine Cover-up – Pamela Tracy (Steeple Hill)

CHILDREN’S / YA

Sir Bentley and Holbrook Court - Chuck Black (Multnomah)

Sir Kendrick and the Castle of Bel Lione (AUDIO) – Chuck Black (Oasis Audio)

Sir Bentley and Holbrook Court (AUDIO) – Chuck Black (Oasis Audio)

Sir Dalton and the Shadow Heart – Chuck Black (Multnomah)

God Found Us You - Lisa Bergren (HarperCollins)

God Gave Us Love – Lisa Bergren (Waterbrook)

NON-FICTION

Only Nuns Change Habits Overnight – Karen Linamen (Waterbrook)

How Can I Run a Tight Ship When I’m Surrounded by Loose Cannons? – Kathi Macias (New Hope)

The Life of A.W. Tozer: In Pursuit of God – James Snyder (Regal Books)

The Purpose of Man: Designed to Worship - A.W. Tozer, edited by James Snyder (Regal Books)

Marriage 101: Building a Life Together by Faith – Jewell Powell (Revell)

Thrive, Don’t Simply Survive – Karol Ladd (Howard Books)

The Jesus of the Bible – Stephen M. Miller (Barbour Publishing)

Life on Planet Mom – Lisa Bergren (Revell)

American Heroes: In the Fight Against Radical Islam – Oliver North and Chuck Holton (B&H Publishing Group)

Reclaiming Christianity: A Call to Authentic Faith – A.W. Tozer, edited by James Snyder (Regal Books)

Your Jesus Is Too Safe: Outgrowing a Drive-Thru, Feel-Good Savior – Jared Wilson (Kregel)

The Diseasing of America’s Children (paperback release) – John Rosemond (Thomas Nelson)

When God Takes Too Long (Book & DVD package) – Joseph Bentz (Beacon Hill)

LT & Me: What Raising a Champion Taught Me about Life, Faith, and Listening to Your Dreams - Loreane Tomlinson with Ginger Kolbaba and Patti Britton

The Little Book of Big Savings – Ellie Kay (Waterbrook)

And He Dwelt Among Us: Teachings from the Gospel of John- A.W. Tozer, edited by James Snyder (Regal Books)

Thrive: Dare to Live Like God- Kevin Johnson (Zondervan/Youth Specialties)

Soar: Sail into God’s Plan for Your Future – Kevin Johnson (Zondervan/Youth Specialties)

Follow: Walk in the Rhythm of Jesus – Kevin Johnson (Zondervan/Youth Specialties)

Think: Figure Out What You Believe and Why – Kevin Johnson (Zondervan/Youth Specialties)

Lord, I Just Want to Be Happy – Leslie Vernick (Harvest House )

The Well Behaved Child: Discipline That Really Works – John Rosemond (Thomas Nelson)

God is Great, God is Good: Why Believing in God is Reasonable and Responsible – William Lane Craig and Chad Meister, general editors (IVP)

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Art of War for Writers

Periodically I plan to recommend a title or two for you to read. I’ve always enjoyed this form of “word-of-mouth” marketing, thus I will “pay it forward.” 

Yesterday afternoon I received James Scott Bell’s The Art of War for Writers: fiction writing strategies, tactics, and exercises (published by Writer’s Digest Books). With interest I took the book home and devoured it. Not literally of course, as I’m not sure what the pages would have tasted like with extra cheese. But I could not keep from turning the pages with delight.

James Scott Bell has done an immeasurable service to writers everywhere. This little book is chock full of sage advice. Loosely based on the ancient classic The Art of War he consistently nudges the reader with nuggets of wisdom that are hard to assail.

The book is flooded with amazing quotes. I kept saying to myself, “Oh that’s a good one, I’ll have to use that in my next presentation.” But after saying that a dozen times in only a few pages I began to to realize the extraordinary wealth found in this book.

While the subtitle indicates the book is written with the novelist in mind the information is universal. Every non-fiction writer can glean much from these pages too.

I was also impressed with the interior design. The publisher went to great lengths to make the reading experience enjoyable. A deft use of two color printing creates accents in all the right places. And the page layout is easy on my old eyes. Thank you Writer’s Digest for an example of top drawer publishing.

Whether you are a novice or a published veteran in the industry there is something for you. The novice should return to the book again and again and practice what they have read! The experienced writer will find a great refresher course in ideas, but can also glean new insights to common problems.

In full disclosure, the author is a friend. We have taught at numerous conferences together over the years. But he has no idea I’m writing this review. And I still like him even though he quotes another agent in the book! Frivolity aside, I can, with full confidence, attest that Jim is the real deal. He has a teacher’s heart and truly wants to do whatever he can to help others succeed.

Do yourself a favor. Buy this book right now! Or put it on your Christmas wish list. It is reasonably priced (retail only $14.99 for 264 pages!)

All three online stores below have the book discounted for under $11.00 (as of the posting of this blog). Such a deal!

Writer’s Digest Books

Barnes & Noble

Amazon.com

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