You owe it to yourself to read the following links and then watch the embedded video. We are all quite aware that the book publishing industry is in the throes of considerable change. Sales channels are shifting and marketing channels have splintered.
Some folks are dismayed by this, and others see it as opportunity. But, as usual, a middle ground can be found. And that middle ground is displayed in the video below.
The below video originally prepared for a recent Penguin sales conference by the UK branch of Dorling Kindersley Books. Watch the entire piece without interruption.
Below is a visual representation of some astounding statistics regarding Internet usage. A little more than twelve years ago I wrote a chapter for a writing book on how to use the Internet for research. I re-read that article recently…umm, Google didn’t even exist back then (founded in September 1998), much less Wikipedia (where the jury is still out if is a reliable source for verifiable facts).
210 billion emails sent per day? I think I get half of those. <!>
20 hours of YouTube videos uploaded every minute?
We swim in a sea of data. So how do you discern what to read or view? In other words, what makes you buy or click?
Take that same mindset and apply it to your next book idea or article. What would make the consumer buy or click it, especially when faced with a plethora of competing options? If your idea, your novel, your insight, can withstand competitive scrutiny then you have a chance to impact this world. Obscurity equals no audience. That is why publishers are pushing agents and authors to make their “platform” bigger.
There is an unsettling myth being perpetuated about the death of print books. The news of print’s demise is simply not true. It sounds a bit like Mark Twain having to write a note to a reporter saying “The report of my death was an exaggeration.”
To fully explain I need to start with the music industry.
The impression is that all sales are now digital. And iTunes has killed the physical CD. This is not true.
Approximately 12 songs fit on a CD. And since individual songs can be downloaded, the only way to compare physical CD sales with download sales is to divide the number of songs downloaded by 12. That way you have a one-to-one comparison.
With that assumption in place, Apple is the #1 retailer of CDs in America. No surprise. The surprise is that they only comprise 25% of sales. Walmart is #2 at 14% and Best Buy is #3 (my guess is that Amazon.com is #4 but wasn’t mentioned in the article).
Why is that surprising? Because that means 75% of all sales are still “hard copy.” Physical CDs. It is significant that Apple’s share has increased as a percentage of all sales from 21% in 2008, up from 14% in 2007. But it still means the physical product is outselling the digital by 3 to 1. (In total dollars, across all forms of music, digital downloads comprise only 35% of all music sales.)
Turn that same conversation to the book industry. The Amazon Kindle has impact primarily because they were first and did create a pretty cool device (I bought one the week it came out in Fall 2007 and upgraded in 2008). The Barnes & Noble Nook is shipping with reports of modest success. The Sony Reader has its followers. Plastic Logic just announced their cool tablet sized reader. And everyone is wondering what Apple will announce in the near(?) future regarding their answer to the “hardware” question. But despite this we really don’t have an “iPod” equivalent. Mike Hyatt, CEO of Thomas Nelson Publishers, wrote in 2005 that we are “one device away from a digital revolution.” In my opinion we are still waiting for that device. The iPhone is not the answer for most people. The screen is simply too small. And for someone like myself who reads rather fast it can be very annoying…
Don’t get me wrong. My head isn’t buried in the sand. That revolution is coming and some would say it is already here. But the “tipping point” has yet to occur.
Amazon had a lot of fun announcing that they sold more digital books than physical books on Christmas Day 2009. Think about it. On Christmas Day recipients of the Kindle opened their gift and downloaded stuff while playing with their new toy. But who else would be shopping on Christmas Day? No one. So while it made a fun press release it really isn’t as astounding as it first sounded.
I see the royalty statements. I know exactly how many digital versions of my client’s books are being sold. And while there are a lot more sold than there were two years ago (of course there would be) the volume is still less than 1% of the print version sold. LESS THAN ONE PERCENT.
So let’s do some math. Let’s say that e-books have 100% growth in the next year. That would mean they would comprise 2% of all sales. Then let’s say it grows by 100% again, to 4%. We have to keep doubling the number for 4 years before we get to a little less than 20% of all print sales. But that still means that 80% of all sales are still hard copy. Eighty percent.
Certainly this revolution could happen and is quite likely. The implications are huge, especially for the newspaper and magazine community. But it does not mean that print books are dead.
It is even possible that in one generation (twenty years) that the conversion will take place..at least in some form or fashion. If the e-book reader cost drops to under $100. If the device is in every home, on each family member’s nightstand. If the younger generation’s textbooks are placed into e-book format and that generation becomes used to it. A lot of “ifs.”
If you want to read someone who will challenge every assumption you’ve ever made about “curling up” with your favorite book, get a copy of Print is Dead by Jeff Gomez. Get a group of friends together to talk about his conclusions, I guarantee a rousing discussion. If you want to learn how the music industry was ambushed by technology read Appetite for Self-Destruction: The Spectacular Crash of the Record Industry in the Digital Age by Steve Knopper.
All I’m trying to say is that we need to stop buying into the myth that books are dead. It simply is not true. We are being influenced by the flood of media attention on the “new” and the “cool” and not looking past the sound bite. It is like relatives or friends writing to say “I saw that there was a flood in Phoenix…are you okay?” Yes. It flooded…in an area with a river wash and someone tried to drive thru it and got stuck. That picture hit the national news. The media gave the impression that the entire city was under water with their breathless coverage. So when you read that publishers are going under, and print books are dinosaurs, and all authors need to rethink everything…take a deep breath. It is different. It is a time of careful consideration. No publisher wants a repeat of what happened to the record industry. But it is not as bad as you think.
In the end I implore you not to be one who helps perpetuate the myths and misinformation.
To your left is an actual picture of the pile of proposals our office has received since December 1, 2009. About 30 days worth of incoming mail…during a slow time of the year. The stack of books next to the pile include books sent for review (consideration) and recent publications that I want to look at.
That does not include the myriad of email submissions we get (many simply ignoring our guidelines regarding email submissions)…inquiries from those who use the contact form on our web site (many of those ignoring the request to “Please do not copy and paste your entire manuscript into this form.“)
Or the poor soul that failed to proofread their email before sending this sentence, “I would like to send you my quarry letter….”
Nor does it include those that do an Internet search and call us. Recently we got a call that went something like this: Agency: This is the Steve Laube Agency… Caller: What kind of agency are you? Agency: We are a literary agency. Caller: What does that mean? Agency: It means we represent books to publishers on behalf of our clients and manage our client’s careers. Caller: Oh good. I do comic strips…and they are really unique… [caller's voice gets faster and louder as they talk] Agency: Well, we don’t represent artists or comic strip artists. Caller: But I’m a philosopher too! ….. [further explanation followed] Agency: Well, we [caller interrupts] Caller: And I’m also a musician with over 500 songs to my credit. Agency: Unfortunately we do not represent musicians at this time. Caller: But I was named Rock musician of the year… Agency: We’re sorry but it does not appear that our agency would be a good fit for you. Caller: You want to listen to my stuff for free on Myspace? Agency: I don’t see how that would be a good use of our time. Caller: Someday someone will discover it and make millions. Agency: We wish you the best in all your endeavors…
The day before, the office received a call from an aspiring author who was a psychic who had an “amazing” personal story to tell…oh, and by the way, they also have two novels done and five children’s books ready and waiting.
Meanwhile I look at my to-do list compiled last weekend in preparation for hitting the ground running on Monday January 4th:
We are waiting for final contract paperwork on four new book deals.
We have three authors whose proposals will get thumbs up or thumbs down at a pub board in the next week or two.
We are waiting for proposals from fifteen clients (all in development over the last couple months).
We need to have “career counsel” conversations with at least ten other clients. (All very different in scope and intensity.)
We need to make the “do we represent?” decision on five successful and published authors who have approached us and the same decision on at least a half dozen excellent unpublished authors whose full manuscripts have been reviewed and now sit on the floor near my desk…staring at me (they are not in the picture above).
And that was just the to-do list and does not include the review of cover designs and marketing plans for forthcoming titles. Nor does it include the contracted clients who are wrangling with their editors over any number of issues (everything from copy edit/grammar questions to editors not returning a phone call). Don’t get me wrong! I’m not complaining. In fact this is quite an exciting time. But this post is for those who wonder why agents take so long to make representation decisions. I’ve written about rejection before and no agent takes the process lightly. But a little understanding and self education would make every writer’s experience while approaching an agent a little more tolerable.
I fully expect that at least 90% of that stack pictured above isn’t ready yet. It doesn’t mean it isn’t good. Only that it isn’t ready. The competition is fierce and a little extra effort to learn the industry (read Rachelle Gardner’s and Chip MacGregor’s blogs), learn the craft by going to a good writers conference in 2010, and realize this is a marathon, not a sprint.
You owe it to yourself to read the following links and then watch the embedded video. We are all quite aware that the book publishing industry is in the throes of considerable change. Sales channels are shifting and marketing channels have splintered.
