Thursday, January 21st, 2010
There is an unsettling myth being perpetuated about the death of print books. The news of print’s demise is simply not true. It sounds a bit like Mark Twain having to write a note to a reporter saying “The report of my death was an exaggeration.”
To fully explain I need to start with the music industry.
The impression is that all sales are now digital. And iTunes has killed the physical CD. This is not true.
Approximately 12 songs fit on a CD. And since individual songs can be downloaded, the only way to compare physical CD sales with download sales is to divide the number of songs downloaded by 12. That way you have a one-to-one comparison.
With that assumption in place, Apple is the #1 retailer of CDs in America. No surprise. The surprise is that they only comprise 25% of sales. Walmart is #2 at 14% and Best Buy is #3 (my guess is that Amazon.com is #4 but wasn’t mentioned in the article).
Why is that surprising? Because that means 75% of all sales are still “hard copy.” Physical CDs. It is significant that Apple’s share has increased as a percentage of all sales from 21% in 2008, up from 14% in 2007. But it still means the physical product is outselling the digital by 3 to 1. (In total dollars, across all forms of music, digital downloads comprise only 35% of all music sales.)
Turn that same conversation to the book industry. The Amazon Kindle has impact primarily because they were first and did create a pretty cool device (I bought one the week it came out in Fall 2007 and upgraded in 2008). The Barnes & Noble Nook is shipping with reports of modest success. The Sony Reader has its followers. Plastic Logic just announced their cool tablet sized reader. And everyone is wondering what Apple will announce in the near(?) future regarding their answer to the “hardware” question. But despite this we really don’t have an “iPod” equivalent. Mike Hyatt, CEO of Thomas Nelson Publishers, wrote in 2005 that we are “one device away from a digital revolution.” In my opinion we are still waiting for that device. The iPhone is not the answer for most people. The screen is simply too small. And for someone like myself who reads rather fast it can be very annoying…
Don’t get me wrong. My head isn’t buried in the sand. That revolution is coming and some would say it is already here. But the “tipping point” has yet to occur.
Amazon had a lot of fun announcing that they sold more digital books than physical books on Christmas Day 2009. Think about it. On Christmas Day recipients of the Kindle opened their gift and downloaded stuff while playing with their new toy. But who else would be shopping on Christmas Day? No one. So while it made a fun press release it really isn’t as astounding as it first sounded.
I see the royalty statements. I know exactly how many digital versions of my client’s books are being sold. And while there are a lot more sold than there were two years ago (of course there would be) the volume is still less than 1% of the print version sold. LESS THAN ONE PERCENT.
So let’s do some math. Let’s say that e-books have 100% growth in the next year. That would mean they would comprise 2% of all sales. Then let’s say it grows by 100% again, to 4%. We have to keep doubling the number for 4 years before we get to a little less than 20% of all print sales. But that still means that 80% of all sales are still hard copy. Eighty percent.
Certainly this revolution could happen and is quite likely. The implications are huge, especially for the newspaper and magazine community. But it does not mean that print books are dead.
It is even possible that in one generation (twenty years) that the conversion will take place..at least in some form or fashion. If the e-book reader cost drops to under $100. If the device is in every home, on each family member’s nightstand. If the younger generation’s textbooks are placed into e-book format and that generation becomes used to it. A lot of “ifs.”
It is a very exciting time to be in the publishing industry. I almost get giddy when thinking about the possibilities.
If you want to read someone who will challenge every assumption you’ve ever made about “curling up” with your favorite book, get a copy of Print is Dead by Jeff Gomez. Get a group of friends together to talk about his conclusions, I guarantee a rousing discussion. If you want to learn how the music industry was ambushed by technology read Appetite for Self-Destruction: The Spectacular Crash of the Record Industry in the Digital Age by Steve Knopper.
All I’m trying to say is that we need to stop buying into the myth that books are dead. It simply is not true. We are being influenced by the flood of media attention on the “new” and the “cool” and not looking past the sound bite. It is like relatives or friends writing to say “I saw that there was a flood in Phoenix…are you okay?” Yes. It flooded…in an area with a river wash and someone tried to drive thru it and got stuck. That picture hit the national news. The media gave the impression that the entire city was under water with their breathless coverage. So when you read that publishers are going under, and print books are dinosaurs, and all authors need to rethink everything…take a deep breath. It is different. It is a time of careful consideration. No publisher wants a repeat of what happened to the record industry. But it is not as bad as you think.
In the end I implore you not to be one who helps perpetuate the myths and misinformation.
Tags: Bookselling, Digital Books, Publishing
Posted in Publishing | 16 Comments »
Saturday, October 17th, 2009
I went to high school in Hawaii (I know.. a rough life) where I learned the joys and perils of body surfing. That experience is a great metaphor for the new “waves” of digital revolution we are seeing in the publishing world.
The key to great body surfing is waiting for the right wave and then time your push just right. The ride is exhilarating (I still remember riding inside the tube of a perfect wave off the beaches of Kauai). BUT if you catch the wrong wave or mistime the push, there is no ride. Or worse, catch a wave that throws you wildly into a bunch of rocks…
But unless you are in the water and making attempt after attempt you will never achieve the perfect ride.
I see this metaphor applied to the new world of digital publishing. It is really fun to play a small part, but even more fun to watch others be extremely creative in their experiments. There are some very bright and exciting people trying new things in merging the traditional book with all things “interactive.”
One well publicized idea is the Vook (video book). This concept blends text and video into one package. Priced very low ($6.99 direct or less via iTunes) Simon & Schuster is starting with two novelists and two non-fiction projects. The 90-Second Fitness Solution, for example, features 13 short videos and 11 text chapters to present a simple fitness program. You can either read/watch it on your computer or download on your iPhone or iTouch.
The idea is creative but sales will determine its long term viability, especially at the prices they are charging. I downloaded the above title and found it fascinating to be able to see exercises demonstrated in video instead of still pictures.
Of course my purchase will be added to their “sales numbers” which makes me wonder how many “test drive” sales are going to happen.
Note that the fiction titles are using recognizable authors. The stories are novellas, not full length novels. Text for the Jude Deveraux title is declared to be 130 pages long but also has 17 videos to accompany the story.
If you are a Simon & Schuster author, don’t expect them to convert your book just yet. Their Vooks are a division of the Atria Books imprint and will be highly selective on where and with whom they put their investment.
In late October 2009 Harper Collins put Gary Vaynerchuk’s new book Crush It into an $11.99 Vook (complete with 17 videos.) This article pulls back a bit of the curtain regarding the costs associated with the Vook.
The next idea is also fascinating. Level 26 by Anthony Zuicker (creator of CSI) with Duane Swierczynski. This serial-killer terror novel has the premise that murderers can be classified according to 25 levels of evil according to the FBI. But now there is one that tops all the others…a “Level 26″ killer…the ultimate evil. Not a book I would recommend you read unless you love bloody horror novels or watch very disturbing movies.
What makes this novel different is that it is the first “Digi Novel.” You ask, “What is a Digi Novel?” Let me quote from the author’s description on Amazon.com:
“…where the traditional story ends, a deeper level of immersion is available at www.level26.com, exclusively to readers of the book. About every twenty pages, you will have the option of logging in to experience a digital cyber-bridge—a three-minute motion picture scene with A-list actors you might’ve seen in blockbuster films and award winning TV shows. Before your eyes, the characters will spring to life, crime scene details will explode off the screen, and the Web site might even ask for a phone number—where the killer can reach you directly. You might call it CSI with an edge.”
I can’t even imagine the amount of money this cost to produce. But again, a very creative way to merge visual/digital interaction with a book.
Another is ScrollMotion’s Iceberg Reader. This is an iPhone app that began with traditional text (and was competing with the dozen other e-book reader software packages) but has recently expanded to include full color kids books. They have both a Curious George alphabet book and a James Patterson Daniel X graphic novel (plus others, of course). There are lots of rumors about this expanding considerably if/when Apple’s tablet computer is launched. They are working with Hachette, HarperCollins, Random House, and Simon & Schuster, according to Publisher’s Weekly (August 24, 2009). From what I can tell this is one of the first e-book readers to fully incorporate color into the experience. But I have likely missed someone else’s software.
Last is a very creative use of the QR code (Quick Read Code). The square label looks a little like a Rorschach image. What makes these unusual is that with the right app on a phone you can take a picture of the image and it will then take your phone immediately to the web site embedded in the barcode. The QR technology is very big in Japan.
I used the QR-Code Generator to create this actual QR code…embedded in this image is the URL to my web site! If you look closely you can see me waving back at you. Just kidding, but this is a real QR code. Create one of your own.
According to Publishers Weekly (September 21, 2009), what HarperCollins has done is to incorporate this technology into books for Teens like Lauren Conrad’s L.A. Candy. According to Carolyn Pittis, HarperColliins senior v-p, global marketing strategy and operations, “In addition to the codes on the Candy jacket, QR codes were featured on posters used at the book launch party, and HC did a cross-promotion with Mark Cosmetics on the Mark site that drove consumers to the harperteen.com site.”
HarperCollins is breaking ground with the use of this technology by putting the code into ads in the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal. Imagine clicking a photo of the code while reading the newspaper and being taken to a site that has a complete video of the information you are looking for…along with an ad to buy something.
By starting with the Teen market they are truly capturing the “cool factor.” The problem of course is explaining what it is and how to use it. We visually block out bar codes because they are so prevalent. My concern as a parent would be “Where is this publisher taking my child?” But that is a topic for another writer to tackle.
Look on the back cover of the new Super Freakonomics book by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner (published by William Morrow – a division of HarperCollins). You will see an OR Code and instructions on how to use it on your smartphone.
This must be what the music publishers felt like when the industry shifted from record albums to 8-Track to Cassette to Compact Disk to MP3 (and from record players to Walkman to Diskman to iPod) in less than 20 years. I hope to address some of the text based digital issues (Kindle vs. Sony vs. the world) in another blog, but for now, revel in the creative energy that is being expended to keep people reading and interacting with their books!
Tags: Digital Books, Publishing, QR Code
Posted in Publishing | 10 Comments »
There is an unsettling myth being perpetuated about the death of print books. The news of print’s demise is simply not true. It sounds a bit like Mark Twain having to write a note to a reporter saying “The report of my death was an exaggeration.”
