Posts Tagged ‘Bookselling’
Thursday, January 21st, 2010
There is an unsettling myth being perpetuated about the death of print books. The news of print’s demise is simply not true. It sounds a bit like Mark Twain having to write a note to a reporter saying “The report of my death was an exaggeration.”
To fully explain I need to start with the music industry.
The impression is that all sales are now digital. And iTunes has killed the physical CD. This is not true.
Approximately 12 songs fit on a CD. And since individual songs can be downloaded, the only way to compare physical CD sales with download sales is to divide the number of songs downloaded by 12. That way you have a one-to-one comparison.
With that assumption in place, Apple is the #1 retailer of CDs in America. No surprise. The surprise is that they only comprise 25% of sales. Walmart is #2 at 14% and Best Buy is #3 (my guess is that Amazon.com is #4 but wasn’t mentioned in the article).
Why is that surprising? Because that means 75% of all sales are still “hard copy.” Physical CDs. It is significant that Apple’s share has increased as a percentage of all sales from 21% in 2008, up from 14% in 2007. But it still means the physical product is outselling the digital by 3 to 1. (In total dollars, across all forms of music, digital downloads comprise only 35% of all music sales.)
Turn that same conversation to the book industry. The Amazon Kindle has impact primarily because they were first and did create a pretty cool device (I bought one the week it came out in Fall 2007 and upgraded in 2008). The Barnes & Noble Nook is shipping with reports of modest success. The Sony Reader has its followers. Plastic Logic just announced their cool tablet sized reader. And everyone is wondering what Apple will announce in the near(?) future regarding their answer to the “hardware” question. But despite this we really don’t have an “iPod” equivalent. Mike Hyatt, CEO of Thomas Nelson Publishers, wrote in 2005 that we are “one device away from a digital revolution.” In my opinion we are still waiting for that device. The iPhone is not the answer for most people. The screen is simply too small. And for someone like myself who reads rather fast it can be very annoying…
Don’t get me wrong. My head isn’t buried in the sand. That revolution is coming and some would say it is already here. But the “tipping point” has yet to occur.
Amazon had a lot of fun announcing that they sold more digital books than physical books on Christmas Day 2009. Think about it. On Christmas Day recipients of the Kindle opened their gift and downloaded stuff while playing with their new toy. But who else would be shopping on Christmas Day? No one. So while it made a fun press release it really isn’t as astounding as it first sounded.
I see the royalty statements. I know exactly how many digital versions of my client’s books are being sold. And while there are a lot more sold than there were two years ago (of course there would be) the volume is still less than 1% of the print version sold. LESS THAN ONE PERCENT.
So let’s do some math. Let’s say that e-books have 100% growth in the next year. That would mean they would comprise 2% of all sales. Then let’s say it grows by 100% again, to 4%. We have to keep doubling the number for 4 years before we get to a little less than 20% of all print sales. But that still means that 80% of all sales are still hard copy. Eighty percent.
Certainly this revolution could happen and is quite likely. The implications are huge, especially for the newspaper and magazine community. But it does not mean that print books are dead.
It is even possible that in one generation (twenty years) that the conversion will take place..at least in some form or fashion. If the e-book reader cost drops to under $100. If the device is in every home, on each family member’s nightstand. If the younger generation’s textbooks are placed into e-book format and that generation becomes used to it. A lot of “ifs.”
It is a very exciting time to be in the publishing industry. I almost get giddy when thinking about the possibilities.
If you want to read someone who will challenge every assumption you’ve ever made about “curling up” with your favorite book, get a copy of Print is Dead by Jeff Gomez. Get a group of friends together to talk about his conclusions, I guarantee a rousing discussion. If you want to learn how the music industry was ambushed by technology read Appetite for Self-Destruction: The Spectacular Crash of the Record Industry in the Digital Age by Steve Knopper.
All I’m trying to say is that we need to stop buying into the myth that books are dead. It simply is not true. We are being influenced by the flood of media attention on the “new” and the “cool” and not looking past the sound bite. It is like relatives or friends writing to say “I saw that there was a flood in Phoenix…are you okay?” Yes. It flooded…in an area with a river wash and someone tried to drive thru it and got stuck. That picture hit the national news. The media gave the impression that the entire city was under water with their breathless coverage. So when you read that publishers are going under, and print books are dinosaurs, and all authors need to rethink everything…take a deep breath. It is different. It is a time of careful consideration. No publisher wants a repeat of what happened to the record industry. But it is not as bad as you think.
In the end I implore you not to be one who helps perpetuate the myths and misinformation.
Tags: Bookselling, Digital Books, Publishing
Posted in Publishing | 17 Comments »
Saturday, July 18th, 2009
Like many going into the 2009 ICRS convention (aka CBA or the Christian Booksellers Association convention) I was wondering what would be found. It was great to see that instead of the projected doom and gloom there was light and hope. (Yes, that is Bob the Tomato and Larry the Cucumber in the photo to the left – courtesy of Christian Retailing Magazine.) A few observations:
1) The total convention exhibit floor was about 30% smaller than in past years and the middle section, housing CBA’s events and displays was HUGE. In fact you could walk through the entire book section very rapidly for the first time in years. Everything seemed condensed.
2) The net effect of the smaller sales floor was that you felt the crowds. There was noise, energy, and excitement in the air. This was a major change over previous years where it always felt so quiet.
3) The reason for the reduced exhibit floor is simple. The publishers reduced the size of their booths. Many cut their space in half. Others simply did not exhibit at all (Thomas Nelson, Steeple Hill, NavPress, and Waterbrook were not to be found). I am not one to make a big deal of the decision to eliminate an exhibit. As a cost cutting move they saved a bundle. They did miss out on some media opportunities (an editor for the Associated Press was working the floor for a story on Christian fiction) and some “hallway” conversations. But when a publisher can spend $100,000 or more to attend the budget restraints are understandable. (A simple 10′ x 10′ booth can cost well over $2,000 just for the space. Then you have to get there, ship the product, create a snazzy booth design, etc.)
4) Fewer publishers had a separate convention suite for meetings. Since those suites can cost more than $10,000+ for the event it was an understandable change. It made finding private places for a meeting a little more difficult, but we all managed.
5) Monday, the first actual day of ICRS, was very busy on the convention floor. The lines for book signings were long and exciting. But I made an interesting observation. I seemed to recognize almost everyone who was walking around. That meant two things:
a) I’m old. After 28 years in the business you get to know a lot of people.
b) It meant that a large number of the attendees were authors or exhibitors…NOT stores.
In fact the word-on-the-street was that there were only 300 stores registered. But I have no way to verify that number. Plus one registration may represent a half dozen or more regional chain stores, and the Family Christian Store chain has over 300 locations. This further cements the reality that the convention is not the place for order taking. Instead it is a place for building bridges with customers, clients, and eventually, consumers.
Bottom line is that it felt busy. And that is a good thing. It did get VERY quiet by Wednesday when all the authors and many of the editorial staff had left. Cutting a full day from the normal four day convention was a very good decision. Kudos to CBA for listening to their members on that score.
6) Those who were predicting that this would be the last ICRS (and that the industry was doomed) were wrong…again. Why is it that we like to view things so negatively? Is it that genetic disposition we have for slowing down to see a car wreck? Do we like to complain to elicit sympathy from our audience? While I can be as morose as the next guy, I try hard to see things in a more positive light. So while the show was a bit slower pace than in past years, it still had great benefit.
7) Benefits for our agency.
a) face time with key people
b) finalized negotiations on three contracts, in person.
c) navigated an author/editor clash, in person. Invaluable to have this kind of conversation face-to-face. Removed all the potential negativity that is systemic to all email communication. Instead the flow of words and exchange of ideas was critical to resolve the problem for everyone.
d) Met with two companies that are working hard on bringing digital products to the consumer via the retailer and the Internet. I was able to find out how I, as an agent, can help their efforts with publishers which will alternatively benefit our client’s sales.
e) Met with a long time industry friend who is seeking an aggressive way to bring back, in ebook and POD, those books, by my clients, that are now out of print and unavailable.
f) Heard the nuanced vision for publishing from at least a half dozen major publishers. Always helpful to hear them articulate their ideas and hear how I can find the right books for their program.
g) found out about two editors whose jobs have changed. One is not returning after maternity leave, another is leaving the company. It’s like trying to keep track of your favorite baseball player during the free agent signing season. People shift around all the time and each time creates another subtle change in the labyrinth.
h) had time with 12 clients who attended. Always nice to touch base, even if for a brief hello. Missed seeing five others due to scheduling conflicts.
You catch the theme here? “In person.” This is a relationship business…as it should be. Friends and acquaintances working towards a common goal.
Anyone else have a different take?
Tags: Bookselling, convention, ICRS
Posted in ICRS | 4 Comments »
Monday, July 13th, 2009
Today is the official opening of the convention in Denver. This year will be my 28th consecutive ICRS (International Christian Retail Show) or CBA as we veterans still call it (Christian Booksellers Association Convention). I absolutely love the experience. I’ve attended as a retailer, as an exhibitor, and now as an “industry professional.” I find it amusing that each name badge is color-coded to help exhibitors know whether the person in their booth is a bookseller (and thereby a potential customer) or a browser, like me. What makes it particularly fun is that the “agent” color is black….the color of an agent’s soul.
PRO: There is nothing like the experience of walking the floor of the world’s largest Christian bookstore. Everything is there, the good, the bad, and the outrageous (like the balloon art crucifix or the painting of a junkie shooting heroin into the arm of Jesus). The spirit is electric. It can be overwhelming, but ultimately it is a picture of God at work. As a writer you can meet key people, network with fellow writers, collect catalogs (those that aren’t digital), and simply increase knowledge of what the industry is all about.
CON: Unrealized expectations. Too many writers think the convention should be all about them. It isn’t. Disappointment is palatable with some folks at the end of the experience. Their publisher didn’t pay enough attention to them; not enough people came to their signing; no editor was available for an appointment…etc. Go to the convention with modest expectations and the chance of disappointment with be minimized.
MORE CONS: In addition the convention has changed significantly in recent years. For the book publisher it is no longer a sales event. It has transformed to a type of author relations event. It makes the authors who come feel good, but it doesn’t help sell books. If you are an author and are doing a booksigning at the convention, don’t fool yourself. More than half the people in the autograph signing line could care less about the author – they want the free book. Sound cynical? More than a tad. But veterans know that I speak the truth. It is still a great way to get books into the hands of booksellers. But it isn’t only fans who are in line. 
Eighty percent or more of the publishers sales have already been made on forthcoming product by the time the ICRS convention rolls around. That is why you see bored sales reps standing around in the publisher booths.
This year will see radical reductions in attendance. The economy has hit the expense budgets hard. Most publishers are severely limiting their presence. Thomas Nelson, Steeple Hill, and Waterbrook are not exhibiting at all. Others are sending a third of the staff they have in the past.
A few publishers banked heavily on the Christian Book Expo in Dallas (March 2009) which was a financial disaster of mythic proportions. So when this July show was planned, there simply wasn’t the budget.
We’ve seen this coming slowly but surely. The music industry’s presence dropped dramatically some years ago. And I see the book publishers following suit.
Some are predicting the demise of the show. I doubt that will happen entirely. It may change, but it is unlikely to go away. And don’t forget that the gift products almost always must be chosen in person. A buyer for a store cannot, or should not, make their product selections out of a catalog or a one inch picture online.
There are few venues where all levels of the publishing industry can gather and exchange ideas. Executives, sales people, marketers, publicity experts, authors, agents, journalists, etc. all in the same place. I really enjoy being at this event. It is a highlight of every year.
Tags: Bookselling, ICRS
Posted in ICRS | 2 Comments »
There is an unsettling myth being perpetuated about the death of print books. The news of print’s demise is simply not true. It sounds a bit like Mark Twain having to write a note to a reporter saying “The report of my death was an exaggeration.”
